A big Chinese navy exercise leaves Taiwan and US struggling for response

Last week, Taiwan was preparing for Chinese navy exercises to “punish” its president, Lai Ching-te, for his overseas trips, which included two brief visits to the United States. Beijing saw it as another show of force in response to the Taiwanese leader’s assertion of national independence.

But what happened next caught Taipei by surprise. Military and national security officials named it China’s largest naval deployment in nearly three decades. At the same time, Beijing announced a partial air traffic restriction over seven coastal areas from Shanghai to Hong Kong for two days.

In contrast to the propaganda campaigns that often accompany exercises against Taipei, the People’s Liberation Army made no statement.

Taiwan and the United States — the island’s only foreign defender, China’s threat to annex it by force if Taipei refuses indefinite reunification — reached very different conclusions.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry set up an emergency response center on Monday and conducted surprise preparedness exercises. “Whether they announce training exercises or not, the threat level to us is serious,” she said.

Washington, however, said that while Chinese navy activity in the East and South China Seas “has increased” after a broader increase in the past few years, it is “consistent” with levels seen in other large-scale exercises. U.S. officials stressed that they did not view the activity as responding to Jimmy Lai’s brief visit to Hawaii and Guam.

A senior U.S. official said it was important to distinguish between coercive actions and “routine large-scale regional exercises” that appear to have taken place. “They chose not to take pressure actions against the Lae crossing,” the official said.

They added that China may have decided not to respond specifically to Lai’s transit because it was “low-level.” However, Beijing may not want to create unrest during the U.S. presidential transition, or the moves are related to political turmoil within the People’s Liberation Army caused by corruption investigations.

The mixed messages highlight the challenges facing Taiwan, the United States, and its allies in assessing China’s intentions and responding to Beijing’s slow-motion pressure campaign against many of its neighbors using its growing military might.

Observers say China can sow confusion and uncertainty among its adversaries by combining unannounced exercises with regular drills. They added that conducting exercises of this magnitude more regularly would make detecting preparations for an attack on Taiwan difficult.

Taiwan’s national security officials said last week’s deployment included nearly 100 ships, two-thirds from the Chinese navy and one-third from the coast guard. Officials said the military presence, which spans the East China Sea, South China Sea, and western Pacific waters off Taiwan’s east coast, was established over 70 days. China did this in part by keeping its ships away from its coast, officials added, after smaller patrols and exercises in October and November. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said the drills were the first to include all three of the PLA’s coastal theaters.

“We agreed that this extends well beyond Taiwan,” one official said, referring to the chain of islands that separate China from the Pacific Ocean from Japan to the Philippines, “proving they have the ability to close the first island chain.” “But gray zone tactics like this are a growing threat to us and our neighbors,” he added, referring to military operations below the threshold of war.

The senior U.S. official said Taiwan may have become overly alarmed because it can better detect what China is doing than in the past. The official added that the U.S. did not ask Taiwan to tone down its rhetoric because it recognizes Taipei may have domestic political considerations.

Taiwan confirmed it worked. “We decided to communicate more clearly what we saw this time. Especially with China’s silence, the public needs to know what is happening around us,” said a senior official.

A Western diplomat said Taipei is trying to “wake up the public” while Lai is eager to strengthen the country’s defenses. “Educating people about PLA training is more effective than the government’s call for increased military preparedness.”

The U.S. official said the Chinese navy exercises highlight the growing scale of PLA exercises outside mainland China and later this year in the winter. The changes also have implications for Japan and the Philippines.

“China has crossed new lines in all its previous exercises,” a senior Japanese official said. “They have now created another new normal: They can conduct exercises of this scale without prior announcement, leaving us all scrambling to react.”