First Signs Russia Is Evacuating Its Warships from Syria
The Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria, is crucial to supporting the Assad regime and its ambitions on the world stage. The dramatic shift in the front lines in Syria is now putting the base at risk. There are signs that Russia may be evacuating its warships.
The Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria, appears to be under imminent threat as the civil war turns against the Assad regime. As the front lines move closer, Russia has already begun taking precautions. Russia currently has five warships and one submarine stationed in Tartus. These include two Gorshkov-class frigates, a Grigorovich-class frigate, two auxiliary submarines, and an improved Kilo-class submarine.
One of these ships, the auxiliary ship Yelnya, was noted to have left Tartus on the morning of December 2, 2024, with information indicating that some or all of the other ships had also left. This unexpected move comes after several days of abrupt changes in the situation in the ongoing civil war in Syria. The Assad regime, of which Russia is a key ally, is now on the defensive. Opposition forces are rapidly advancing toward the capital.
While unconfirmed, the ship’s movement is seen as directly linked to the situation on the ground. If so, it is the first clear sign that Russia is moving valuable assets out of the country. “There is a real possibility that the departure is linked to the deteriorating situation in Syria,” noted respected naval analyst Droxford Maritime at X and Bluesky. The Yelnya is a Project 160 Altay tanker, a valuable and important asset in maintaining Russian power in the Mediterranean. Reports suggest that a submarine, frigates, and another auxiliary ship sailed from Tartus.
Tartus: Russia’s Strategic Overseas Base
The Tartus naval base on Syria’s Mediterranean coast is a strategic asset for Russia. The Russian Navy has maintained the naval base there since 1971, but it was discontinued after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2012, its use has increased again, and it has become Russia’s main overseas naval base. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it has taken on even greater importance. Russia increased its military presence in Tartus before the invasion to counter and deter direct NATO intervention, particularly aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean.
Tartus also served as a staging base for major warships that intended to join the fight in the Black Sea. As it became known, Turkey prevented most of them, including additional Slava-class corvettes, from entering the Black Sea after the invasion began. They remained in the Mediterranean to provide support. Russia has struggled to maintain this naval presence in the Mediterranean since then, but the warships and submarines in Tartus remain essential.
The outlook is not good for Russia
It now seems possible that the port will be attacked or abandoned. It is certainly possible that Russian warships will abandon the once-safe port. The warships are expected to sail from the Mediterranean to the Baltic. They may seek temporary safe haven in Algeria or Libya along the way.
If Tartus remains under Russian control, it will likely be used for any heavy Russian reinforcements. However, they will take weeks, so initial movements will likely be by air. Until February 2024, Russia maintained regular ship transits to the Black Sea, nicknamed the “Syria Express.” However, these have been halted, possibly due to the growing threat from Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (USVs) in the Black Sea. Now, the ships must sail around Europe to the Baltic. If Russia is in dire need of reinforcing Syria or evacuating heavy equipment, it could try the Black Sea route again. If so, it will expose you to Ukrainian drones.
The Russian spy ship Yantar, known for loitering near undersea cables, is also in the Mediterranean. It made a brief stop in Algiers on November 30 and has since stopped operating on AIS (Automated Information System Location Live Broadcast). It remains to be seen how the situation in Syria will affect it. If Russia abandons Tartus, it will have geopolitical implications that are difficult to predict.
