Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang since 2000 was an opportunity for Russia and North Korea. To show off their friendship, and they flaunted it when Kim declared his “full support” for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Seoul, Tokyo, Washington, and Brussels will see these words and the staged meeting as a huge risk. Both leaders feel they need each other. Mr Putin desperately needs ammunition to continue the war, and North Korea needs money.
But the real power in the region does not lie with North Korea, nor does it want to. Putin and Kim have close ties to China and therefore were certainly wary of provoking it. A key source of trade and influence for both sanctioned regimes. And even if Putin praised his “solid friendship” with Kim, he should know that it has its limits. And that limit is Chinese President Xi Jinping.
A Wary Chinese Government Is Watching The Situation Closely
There are some signs that Xi Jinping does not approve of the burgeoning alliance between two of his allies. The Chinese government has reportedly asked Putin not to visit Pyongyang so soon after he met with Xi in May. Chinese officials did not like the impression that the visit involved North Korea. MR Xi is already under huge pressure from the United States and Europe. To reduce support for Moscow and stop selling parts of countries that are fueling the war in Ukraine.
And he cannot ignore these warnings. Just as the world needs the Chinese market, Beijing also needs foreign tourists. And investment to counter slowing growth and maintain its position as the world’s second-largest economy. The company now offers visa-free travel to visitors from parts of Europe as well as Thailand and Australia. And his pandas are being taken to zoos abroad again. An ambitious Chinese leader who wants to assume a bigger global role. And challenge the United States needs to be careful about perceptions. He certainly does not want to be an outcast or to be exposed to new pressure from the West. At the same time, he continues to maintain ties with Moscow.
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North Korea’s weapons tests have prompted Japan and South Korea to set aside bitter history and sign defense pacts with the U.S., And as tensions rise, more U.S. warships are appearing in Pacific waters, fueling Xi Jinping’s concerns about a “NATO in East Asia. Beijing’s disapproval could force Russia to reconsider technology sales to North Korea, a possibility that is also one of the U.S.’s biggest concerns. NK News director Andrey Lankov expressed scepticism: “I don’t think Russia will provide North Korea with a significant amount of military technology. He believes that even if Russia did, “it wouldn’t get many benefits from it and would probably create problems for itself in the future.
North Korea’s artillery would be a blow to Putin’s war effort, but trading missile technology for it wouldn’t exactly be a great deal. And Putin may realise that it’s futile to anger China, which buys Russian oil and gas and remains a key ally in a world that has isolated him. North Korea needs China even more; it’s the only country Kim visits. While about a quarter to half of North Korea’s oil comes from Russia, at least 80 percent of North Korea’s oil is traded with China. One analyst has described Sino-North Korean relations as like an oil lamp that is constantly burning. In summary, Although Putin and Kim try to portray themselves as allies, their relationship with China is far more important than the common ground they have.
China Is Too Important To Lose
In a meeting between Putin and Kim, a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement was announced, elevating their relationship to an “alliance.” However, analysts doubt the sustainability of the partnership due to differences in operating systems and the historical lack of priority given to bilateral relations. Despite Russia and North Korea’s shared opposition to Western influence, Putin’s relationship with Kim pales in comparison to Kim’s interactions with leaders like Xi and Trump. The absence of flattery and prioritisation by Putin suggests that North Korea’s important partner is elsewhere, namely, China.
